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Crude oil prices slumped over -4% on profit-taking as the decision after the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting was in line with market expectations. Recall that, after OPEC/non-OPEC announced to take coordinated action to reduce output late last year (effective January 2017), crude oil benchmarks recovered from low-40 levels in November 2016 to above US$55/bbl in January this year.

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Oil Prices Slumped after OPEC Deal

Central bank news captured the spotlight on Wednesday, with the FOMC minutes and the BOC meeting the major market movers. For the former, while policymakers basically affirmed a rate hike in June, the future rate path remained uncertain. Concerns over the US economic outlook were aggravated by the indications that the Fed’s balance sheet reduction might begin in as soon as later this year. By contrast, market sentiment was buoyed by BOC’s more upbeat comments on global and domestic growth developments.

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Greenback Soft on Uncertain Rate Hike Path after June

Following a modestly risk-off opening due to the terrorist attack in Manchester, United Kingdom, financial markets were buoyed by upbeat macroeconomic data. US dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC minutes while the euro was a tad softer as ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure indicated that there’s no need to change policy exit sequencing from that communicated by the bank previously.

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USD Higher as ECB Official Affirmed Forward Guidance. FOMC Minutes Awaited

Crude oil prices remained firm ahead of the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting later this week. The front-month WTI crude oil contract extended the recent rally, accumulating gains of +4.2% over the past 4 days, and settled at 50.73. Adding +0.49% on Monday, the Brent contract also strengthened for a 4th consecutive day, closing at 53.87 before rising to as high as 54.37 in early trading. In the FX market, euro’s strength accelerated as German Chancellor suggesting that it’s too weak.

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Single Currency Making New High as Merkel Complained "Too Weak"

Crude oil prices extend last week’s strength in Asia Monday. With both benchmarks holding above US$ 50/bbl, the market is awaiting the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting schedule on May 25. The market has priced in an output extension deal until March 2018. We are concerned that the deal would be incapable of revitalizing the energy prices further from current levels due to US’ rapid shale investment. In the FX market, US dollar stabilized after the selloff over the past week.

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Busy Week Ahead – OPEC, FOMC Minutes and BOC Meeting

Energy and precious metal prices were generally higher over the past week, led by weakness in US dollar which was weighed down by political crisis in the White House. On the oil market, the positive sentiment was also driven by expectations that the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting, scheduled on May 25, would bring agreement of output cut extension of 18 months.

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Weekly Fundamentals – Traders Thrilled whilst Awaiting Upcoming OPEC Meeting

Value Area CL Futures:: 50.71 50.53 Value Area ES Futures:: 2384.00 / 2377.00 All Day EUREurogroup Meetings All Day CADBank Holiday 10:00am USDFOMC Member Harker Speaks Statistics: Posted by Bon — Sat May 20, 2017 11:33 am

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Daily News Events • May 22

Value Area CL:: 49.79 / 49.29 Value Area ES:: 2369.25 / 2357.75 8:30am CADFluff Data (lots of it) 10:00am EURConsumer Confidence 1:30pm USDRig Count Statistics: Posted by Bon — Fri May 19, 2017 5:59 am

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Daily News Events • May 19

Value Area CL:: 49.45 / 48.97 Value Area ES:: 2369.25 / 2357.75 8:30am CADFluff Data (lots of it) 10:00am EURConsumer Confidence 1:30pm USDRig Count Statistics: Posted by Bon — Fri May 19, 2017 5:58 am

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Daily News Events • May 19

US financial markets stabilized after the selloff in the previous day, thanks to better-than-expected macroeconomic data. Wall Street gained +0.27% and the S&P 500 index ended the day +0.37% higher. US dollar recovered with the DXY index paring the losses made on Wednesday. Note in particular that GBPUSD reversed gains after briefly breaching 1.3.

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Sentiment Lifted as US’ Mnuchin Suggested Could Reach +3% with Tax Reform