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Divergence and wave ct suggesting down. Watching Fri with stronger bias Monday 19th.

Update on Gold as per previous post Divergence played out on Friday with a $32 move down.
Thank you Goldman Sachs!

greygoose wrote:Divergence and wave ct suggesting down. Watching Fri with stronger bias Monday 19th.

WOW. Those charts are pretty complicated. I´d like to talk to you about them if possible ?

Thanks.

Previously posted monthly Elliott Wave analysis established Waves 5 and A which are noted on this chart. Price is presently searching for the high of Wave B, the 7th EW. A fractal will identify Wave B high after which the 8th and final corrective Wave C will commence.
More recently RSI has traced a CND between Wave 3 fractal and the first blue circled fractal.

The current issues with respect to future price action are, where and when will price make the high of Wave B? The up cycle from 5/A to a is applied to the low of b, red line for a symmetrical price high between Fibonacci retracement 1.272 and 1.414 (1182 to 1188). Fibonacci time zones suggest (4 red vertical lines) price high next week. Although price may retest the prior high at Wave 5 for a double top.

Attached weekly chart counts EWs using RSI and fractals. Price has recently traced fractal low of Wave 1. Price is presently searching for the high of Wave 2, which has not been conclusively established. Once established corrective Waves 3, and 5 follow, with each having 5 legs down. Wave 4 will be corrective of the prior impulse Wave 3 and have 3 waves up.

There is insufficient data in this chart to conclusively identify Wave 5/head and RS at (B). However, it is reasonable to draw this conclusion from subsequent price and RSI/fractal action. Present price action suggests a zigzag correction although later price action can change this corrective pattern. It is possible to trace a double or triple zigzag or a flat correction. In any event price may be expected to trace (C) low.

Attached 4 hour charts closely examines price action, RSI and fractal positions since the high of Wave B. Reference the weekly analysis posted yesterday regarding price location within the longer term EW cycle. Wave B high is the right shoulder of a long term H&S upright pattern. This price pattern correctly argues lower price. Wave B is the high of the seventh wave of eight in the EW cycle. The final Wave C is the eight wave presently being traced.

Historical RSI locations are number 1 through 4. Price fractal locations are also numbered to coincide with RSI values. Wave 4 traced a shorter term up right H&S pattern with a historical RSI/price RND at Wave 4 high. A lower risk historical short trade is noted on the chart incident to price decline subsequent to the RS high. The 5 waves down are impulse waves in the direction of the trend.

Price is now searching for the low of Wave 5 which will, when established identify the low of Wave 1 in the weekly cycle. Subsequent to Wave 1 low price will trace an A, B, C corrective waves higher (corrective of the previous 5 waves down) to establish the high of Wave 2. These 3 corrective waves will be clearly traced in the 4 hour period.

Once Wave 5 in the 4 hour/Wave 1 in the weekly period low is conclusively established it will require a new Fibonacci retracement study from the high of Wave B to Wave 5/1 low which will project levels of resistance to higher price incident to A,B, C, Wave 2 high.