Crude oil price forecast next week, oil to trade lower?

Oil prices could be in for another roller coaster ride next week and end the week trading lower as US refineries perform the annual 2010 maintenance, reducing oil demand.

According to the latest Bloomberg survey, 14 of 34 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast crude oil prices will decline by the end of the trading week, September 10th, while 10 respondents, or 29 percent, predicted that oil futures will rise, and 10 projected oil prices will be little changed.

Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. The Bloomberg oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of crude oil futures for 47 percent of the time since 2004.

“There’s uncertainty about the demand side of the market. Oil refineries are cutting back on operating rates, which is going to reduce demand for crude oil. Also, US domestic oil production has been quietly rising, it’s now at the highest level since 2004.” said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, New York.

US Light crude oil production increased by 1.7 percent to 5.6 million barrels a day last week, the highest level since May 2004.

WTI Oil Prices – 2010 over 2009

The US WTI oil futures price for October 2010 delivery closed Friday’s trading at $74.60 a barrel on the NYMEX, however WTI oil futures are up nearly ten percent from the same period in 2009.