Brent oil price seems overvalued due to ample supply and a strong US dollar

The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil seems overvalued at it’s current rate mainly due to ample supply and inventories, together with a strong US dollar which is holding ground against major currencies and remains a safe haven for a percentage of investors.

Latest Brent Oil Price

In London, European ICE Brent crude oil futures for July 2013 delivery was trading at $102.40 a barrel, 07:50 GMT on the ICE Futures Exchange. The contract fell 35 cents to $102.64 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London yesterday.

OPEC – Oil Supply & Demand

Yesterday, crude oil prices were pressured lower by OPEC’s disclosure that its members boosted production by 106,000 barrels a day in May. Some experts feel the world already has an ample supply to meet current demand.

“Oil prices have slid back after OPEC increased crude output in May while at the same time keeping its 2013 demand forecast unchanged on concerns about the demand outlook,” said Michael Hewson of CMC Markets in an email commentary.

OPEC’s monthly report, which marginally cut the global oil demand growth forecast for 2013 by 10,000 barrels a day from last month’s report. OPEC warned that “risks are skewed towards the downside” for demand. “This is due largely to the weak economic outlook for Europe, as well as to any possible setbacks in the US economic recovery,” it said, adding “the current forecast is subject to downward revisions not only in the OECD but also in emerging economies.”

Meanwhile, the US API (American Petroleum Institute) showed a weekly increase in US crude oil stocks by nearly 9 million barrels for the week ending June 7, while expectations had been for no change, according to a Platts survey.

“The American Petroleum Institute data was bearish, featuring a sharp 9.0 [million barrels] build in commercial crude oil inventories on lower refinery runs and much higher imports than anticipated,” according to Tim Evans, at Citi Futures and OTC Clearing, in emailed comments.

More closely watched data from the US Energy Information Administration is due out later today at 15:30 GMT.

US Dollar & Oil Prices

The US dollar historically has a big impact on the price of oil and other commodities and as seen in May, the US Dollar Index hit 84 levels, capping Brent crude oil at around $100 to $105 per barrel mark. In the last two weeks we have seen the index loose around 4 percent but oil prices have not risen in tandem with those losses.

With crude oil inventories gaining, together with a strong US dollar, it seems that there can be only one way for Brent oil to trade in the short term and that would be lower.

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Brent oil price seems overvalued due to ample supply and a strong US dollar