Crude oil prices remained under pressure with the front-month WTI contract declining for 5 weeks in a row while Brent crude staying firmly in contango. The recent selloff has been mainly driven by oversupply concerns while Fed’s confirmation of the end of QE further damped sentiment. It is likely that OPEC members would not reduce production target in November despite price fall.
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Weekly Fundamentals – Crude Slumped US$20-30/bbl from 2014 High
China and Russia eventually signed a 30-year gas deal in the midst of intensified crisis in Ukraine and the threat of the West to heightened sanctions against Russia. While many believed that US$ 400B deal should be a win-win for China and Russia, the benefits both would get are more symbolic than pragmatic. Russia’s Gazprom will begin supplying China’s CNPC with up to an annual amount of 38B cubic metres from 2018.
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Weekly Fundamentals – China-Russia Gas Deal More Symbolic than Pragmatic
Gold rebounded at the start of the New Year, after recording the worst yearly decline in more than 3 decades last year. The benchmark Comex contract jumped to a 2-week high of 1227.2 earlier in the day. Crude oil prices also gained with the front-month WTI contract recovered to above 98 and the Brent crude contract rising to above 111.
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Gold Rebounded after Undergoing the Worst Year in 3 Decades
Crude oil prices gained as market sentiment was surprisingly buoyed after the Fed announced that QE tapering would begin in January. Fed’s more optimistic economic outlook and its dovish statement pledging to leave the policy rate at exceptionally low levels probably drove markets higher. Prices were also lifted as the EIA/DOE report showed another week of US inventory fall.
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Crude Oil Gained as Fed Begins Tapering but with Dovish Tone
Financial markets strengthened in Asian session as China released reform details and investors expected the Fed to extend stimulus. The China government released on November 15 the details of a reform package addressing 16 areas with 60 major initiatives across almost all the areas. It is expected that tax reform, interest rate liberalization and adjustment to the one-child policy would likely to be executed in 2014.
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Sentiment Lifted as China Released Reform Details, Fed may Extend Stimulus
Financial markets were buoyed by Fed’s minutes for the June meeting. As the minutes indicated that a number of officials remained skeptical about tapering of QE measures until economic recovery has confirmed a firm footing, investors felt more comfortable in trading on risky assets and selling the greenback. The IMF cut its global economic growth forecast with expansion in emerging economies expected to moderate more quickly than expected.
Commodities slumped after the FOMC minutes signaled the possibility of ending QE by the end of this year. Gold price got hammered with the benchmark Comex contract sinking to as low as 1661.2 before recovering to 1674.6, down -0.84% at close.
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Commodities Plummeted as Fed Minutes Signaled QE Might End in 2013
Commodities moved sideways in European session as investors awaited US lawmakers to resume talks after the Christmas holiday. In Asia, the tone of monetary easing intensified as Chinese central bank inject liquidity to the market while the new Japanese government appointed new financial chief to save the country’s sluggish economy.
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Hopes of Monetary Easing Heightened in Asia
Financial markets moved in sideways in Asian session as investors awaited the meeting to finalize a deal for Greece’s next tranche of funding. Greece suggested raising the debt target to 124% of GDP in 2020 from 120% as the condition of getting a payout of 31B euro. French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici urged to complete a deal at the third meeting as “it would be irresponsible not to reach an accord given all the efforts that have been made on all sides”.
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Markets Await Finalization of Greek Deal
For Today’s Exactrade of the Day we are looking at ATHN, Athena Health: *ATHN *is gapping down into possible support on the daily chart. Look to take *ATHN* long on a new high above the open with strong volume. Wait at least 2 minutes after the maket open and look to take it long once it makes a new high of the day. If *ATHN *moves down at the open simply set an alert at the high of day and take it long if it breaks that high of day. First target is .71 from your entry, second target is 1.42 from your entry. Manage the last piece with a trailing stop. Remember to always use a stop. Statistics: Posted by Bon — Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:26 am
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Stock Watch • ATHN, Athena Health