Author: jimuuk

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Stocks set to open higher as Treasury official says no plans to ban China listings on U.S. exchanges

Crude oil prices rebounded towards the end of last week amid concerns that Tropical storm Karen would affect oil production in Gulf, home to 23% of US crude production, 5.6% of gas output and over 45% of petroleum refining capacity. The National Hurricane Center forecast that it would make landfall on Sunday on the southeastern tip of Louisiana.

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Weekly Fundamentals – Crude Rebounded as Tropical Storm Might Hurt Gulf Output

Financial markets soared in the US session as Home Depot raised its guidance and Fed’s Bullard signaled he favored to continue QE. Wall Street gained with the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices adding +0.34% and +0.17% respectively. In the commodity sector, the front-month contract for WTI crude oil slipped -0.57% while the Brent crude contract fell -0.85% during the day.

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US Retail Sales Show Signs of Improvement

Commodities recovered across the board last week amid bargain hunting and short covering after the sharp selloff in the prior week. The bullishness appear temporary and further rallies from the current price levels are less likely as market fundamentals remain generally weak.

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Weekly Fundamentals – Commodities Recovered after Massive Selloff

The price of a barrel of European Brent crude oil is holding out above $101 amid a strong US dollar (as seen by strength in the Dollar Index) as data from the US suggests that American crude oil inventories are lower than were forecast.

Latest Brent Oil Price

In London, Brent crude oil futures for June 2013 delivery was trading at $101.88 a barrel, 12:24 GMT today on the ICE Futures Exchange after posting gains on Wednesday. Brent gained more than $1 a barrel yesterday and US WTI crude oil jumped nearly $2 as stockpiles of gasoline declined in top consumer the United States.

“The macroeconomic headlines were disappointing again, so if anything they’d be bearish, but the market doesn’t seem to be concerned about that right now. They’re just responding to price,” said Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report in Villanova, Pennsylvania.

Mixed Data from API & EIA

US crude oil inventories came out mixed with the API (American Petroleum Institute) reporting that US crude oil stocks had fallen by 845,000 barrels to 383.2 million barrels for the week ending April 19th.

Meanwhile, the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) reported that US crude oil inventories rose by 947,000 barrels last week, which was well below market calls for a gain of 1.513 million barrels and sparked yesterday’s rally in energy markets and oil prices moved higher. Total US crude oil inventories stood at 388.6 million barrels as of last week.

Brent and WTI Spread

The spread between the Brent and US WTI crude contracts narrowing to around $10 a barrel whilst Goldman Sachs yesterday cut its three month outlook for Brent oil prices to $100 a barrel from $110 and lowered its 2013 forecast to $105 from $110, citing concerns over Chinese oil demand prospects.

“Commodity returns have dropped sharply so far in April as weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data releases in the US, Europe and China furthered concerns around global economic growth,” New York based analyst Samantha Dart said in the report. “The negative sentiment in the market has weighed on cyclical commodity prices in particular.”

The prospect of a slowing global economy dampening oil demand growth has already shaved $10 off the price of Brent since the start of April. Continued uncertainty over global growth may result in commodities facing increased volatility.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude, a barometer of global oil prices, dropped below $100 a barrel last week for the first time in nine months, as crude oil supplies overwhelmed weak demand expectations.

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Brent oil price holds at $101 a barrel boosted by lower US inventory data

Financial markets remained firm as driven by encouraging US economic data. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for a 10 consecutive day, the longest string since 1996, and ended the day +0.58% higher.

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Strong US Data Sent Shares to New Highs

Wall Street mixed after recent strong rally as investors remained cautious ahead the G-20 meeting and financial leaders’ opinions on a potential currency war. After briefly breaching the record high made in November 2007, the S&P 500 index eased and ended the day +0.06% higher at 1520.33.

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Wall Street Mixed After Recent Rally