Author: Kori oTU542

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The Global Airline Shutdown Has a Surprise Victim: Gold Miners

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Peter Navarro: Reports that US would restrict Chinese companies are ‘fake news’

Gold resumed weakness in European session after a brief recovery yesterday. It appears that recent escalation in Russia-Ukraine has only limited impact on driving gold’s demand. The capital outflow of gold ETFs is evidence that investors either are not concerned about the tensions in the region or do not consider the yellow metal as an safe-haven asset.

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Gold’s Weakness Resumes after Brief Recovery

Commodities gave up previous gains and end the day in red as there were few breakthroughs after the Crimean referendum result showed that the majority of voters favor joining Russia. Crude oil prices declined with the front-month WTI contract losing -0.82% and the Brent crude contract tumbling -2.16%. Gold also lost ground as investors took profits after rising over the past 5 consecutive days.

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Crude Plummeted as Sanctions against Russia Unlikely Affect Supply

Crude oil declined as inventory increased last week and US weather is expected to get warmer. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil dropped to a 5-day low of 101.02 before settling at 101.83, down -0.96%, while the Brent crude contract erased the gain made a day ago. Gold firmed to a fresh 4-month high as disappointing US data raised hopes that the Fed might defer tapering.

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Crude Oil Dropped on Inventory Gain. Disappointing US Data Supported Gold

Although the Fed retained the pace and size of QE in October, gold slipped as the post-FOMC meeting statement released yesterday did not rule out the possibility of a December taper. Strength in the US dollar also pressured the yellow metal. Yet, it appears increasingly likely that the tapering would begin in January 2014, instead. A Citigroup survey suggested that participants’ speculations of the odds of a taper in January rose to 45%, from 25% before the announcement.

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Gold Eased as December Tapering Not Ruled Out

Financial market firmed despite IMF’s downgrade in global economic outlook. Wall Street rose with the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices gaining +0.5% and +0.72% respectively. In the commodity sector, the front-month contract for WTI crude oil rose to +0.38% while the Brent crude contract gained +0.35%.

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IMF Cut Global Economic Outlook as Emerging Markets Growth Risks to the Downside

Financial markets climbed higher as more FOMC members watered down the Fed’s tapering plans and benign inflation in the US reduced the need for urgent paring. Wall Street gained with the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices rising +0.77% and +0.62% respectively.

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Sentiment Improved Further a Fed Officials Downplayed Tapering

Market sentiment improved amid hopes for continuous monetary easing policies from major central banks. Downward revisions in US GDP raised speculations that the Fed might push backward the timing of QE paring.

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Sentiment Improved on Hopes that Stimulus Would Sustain

The better-than-expected US data has sent 2 messages to the market. First, it assured that the US economic recovery has remained on track. Second, encouraging economic data might give more confidence to the Fed in considering reduction in QE measures. The net effect on the stock markets was that both the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices gained modestly by +0.69% and +0.63% respectively and most of the gains were main before the data was released.

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Encouraging US Data Sent Mixed Message to the Market