Author: SondraHunter

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New Zealand dollar slides as central bank signals possible rate cut

Financial markets stayed quiet ahead of a busy week. Commodities changed little after receiving a downwardly revised Chinese PMI by HSBC. The final PMI dropped to 48.1 in April, from the flash reading of 48.3. It was, however, higher than March’s 48. Yet, the manufacturing sector of the world’s second largest economy stayed in the contractionary territory.

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Quiet Day ahead of Busy Week

Market sentiment firmed modestly after Easter holidays as US economic data surprised to the upside. This led to gains in the stock market with the DJIA and the S&P 500 indices gaining +0.25% and +0.38% respectively. In the commodity sector, the front-month contract for Brent crude gained +0.36% while the WTI crude contract closed largely flat.

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Sentiment Picked Up as US Data Surprised to the Upside

The front-month contract for WTI crude oil soared +2.57% last week, the biggest rise so far this year. Fed’s downplay of rate hike sentiment and the EIA’s upgrade of crude oil price forecasts supported prices. The WTI-Brent spread narrowed as expectations that Libya would resume production capped the gains in Brent crude prices.

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Weekly Fundamentals – WTI-Brent Spread Narrowed to 7-Month Low

Despite being viewed as a big victim of Fed’s tapering, gold price has so far outperformed other commodities with over +3% gains since the beginning of this year. The reemergence of stress in emerging markets has rekindled gold’s safe-haven appeal these days. Weakness in the equity markets as well as decline in US real yields resulting from disappointing US data have also lifted the yellow metal.

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Gold Remains Supported by Temporary Factors

WTI crude oil changed little but with a soft tone while Brent crude plunged in Asian session. It was probably driven by profit taking after making the biggest weekly gain in the first few weeks in 2014 and selloff in emerging markets. Gold soared as demand for safe haven increases amidst concerns over emerging market crisis.

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Emerging Markets Tumble

Gold price moved with a soft bias in European session. The trend would likely continue as investors await the FOMC meeting. Although the yellow metal has recovered from the medium-term low of 1179.4, it has remained at the lowest level since early 2011. The 2 newly launched gold ETF in China recorded losses on the first day of launch on Monday.

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Gold’s Sideways Trading Continues ahead of FOMC Meeting

Financial markets weakened in Asian session on Monday before BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda delivers his speech with the title “Nikkei-yen train back on track” later today. Japanese yen has resumed strength as the results of last week’s upper house election came in line with expectations.

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FOMC and ECB Meetings in Focus

The focus today is the FOMC meeting and the post-meeting press conference. Wall Street soared as weaker than expected inflation data should give the Fed more room to further stimulus. The DJIA and the S&P 500 indices rose +0.91% and +0.78% respectively.

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Benign US Inflation Raised Hopes for Longer QE

Asian shares climbed higher as positive sentiment after US payrolls report and ISM index carried forward. China’s services PMI rose to 56.2 in January from 56.1 a month a got. Activities were mainly helped by increase in consumer spending.

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Asian Shares Rose on Positive Sentiment and Chinese Data Strengthened