2011 gold price forecast lowered by UBS on market slowdown

3 October 2011 3 October 2011

LorieFuller31

Swiss banking giant UBS has lowered its gold price forecast for Autumn of 2011, saying that it’s previous price forecast for the precious metal was overly ambitious given the recent slowdown in market momentum.

UBS has cut it’s one month gold forecast to $1,775 per ounce from $1,950 and lowered its three month gold forecast to $1,950 per ounce from $2,100.

Latest Gold Futures Price

Gold for December delivery was up $38.10 at $1,660.40 an ounce at the Comex division of the NYMEX, trading as high as $1,667 and as low as $1,620 an ounce, while the spot gold price was adding $27, according to Kitco’s gold index.

Big Gold Price Moves

Gold prices have fallen sharply in the past four weeks, as investors started a huge stock market sell off which sent the precious metal down around 15 percent from its high above $1,913 at the end of August 2011. But although global stock markets and oil prices sold off again today, gold clinged onto make gains.

George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, thinks that gold’s rally today is due to portfolio managers buying back gold in the fourth quarter after selling it at the end of the third.

“Investors are asking asset managers to include precious metals in portfolios … the gold rally, if it breaks through the upside of $1,675 and stays in that range, will signal a good turn.”

Gold advanced for a third day on concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may not be contained, spurring investors to buy the metal to guard their wealth against a potential slowdown in the global economy.

“Investors who may not have the patience to wait for a political solution to the debt crisis from policy makers may seek out gold as a portfolio diversifier.” according to James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities.

{lang: 'en-GB'}