WTI oil trading around $85 a barrel, price gains maybe short-lived

11 October 2011 11 October 2011

SylviaHunt30

WTI oil futures open Tuesday trading session hovering around $85 a barrel, however recent oil price gains maybe short-lived as Commerzbank analysts doubt the rally will last, saying that the rally is being driven by hot money looking for bargains.

Latest WTI Oil Price

US Light crude oil futures for November 2011 delivery was trading at $85.01 a barrel, 08.10 GMT this morning in electronic trading on the NYMEX.

Commerzbank and Oil Futures

The current price increase is attributable to the easing of fears about recession, following surprisingly positive US labour market data on Friday. There are also hopes of a comprehensive solution to the eurozone debt crisis. At the weekend German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy announced such a solution for the end of the month.

We do not regard these two factors as either appropriate or sufficient to justify a sustained price recovery and attribute the upward movement more to a countermovement following the severe losses of recent weeks.

CFTC Oil Long Positions Drop

This view is also supported by the current data on market positioning published by the CFTC after close of trading on Friday. Money managers thus reduced their net long positions in WTI by another 15.5 thousand to 126,093 contracts in the week to 4th October. This is the lowest level since September 2010.

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